Graphical models with latent count variables arise in a number of fields.

However, the Bayesian network and ordinal modeling ignore the inherent branching structure among the counting relationship, which is frequently encountered in real world (Weiß [2018]).

Causal discovery from observational data, especially for count data, is essential across scientific and industrial contexts, such as biology, economics, and network operation maintenance. However, they overlook the inherent branching structures that are frequently encountered, e.g., a browsing event might trigger an adding cart or purchasing event. This can be modeled by a binomial thinning operator (for branching) and an additive independent Poisson distribution (for noising), known as Poisson Branching Structure Causal Model (PB-SCM). There is a provably sound cumulant-based causal discovery method that allows the identification of the causal structure under a branching structure. However, we show that there still remains a gap in that there exist causal directions that are identifiable while the algorithm fails to identify them. In this work, we address this gap by exploring the identifiability of PB-SCM using the Probability Generating Function (PGF).

The idea of probability generating function achieving similar forms of "conjugacy" as Gaussian random variables and (finite) discrete random variables is very interesting. This enables a fast and exact inference algorithm on Poisson latent variable models. The formulation involving probability generating function does not seem to be constrained to Poisson random variables but all the simulations and real application pertain to Poisson HMM. It is unclear if there's anything special with Poisson that enables better parameter estimates. It is also unclear if there are other Poisson latent variable models other than Poisson HMMs with wide applications.

We present an exact Bayesian inference method for discrete statistical models, which can find exact solutions to a large class of discrete inference problems, even with infinite support and continuous priors.To express such models, we introduce a probabilistic programming language that supports discrete and continuous sampling, discrete observations, affine functions, (stochastic) branching, and conditioning on discrete events.Our key tool is probability generating functions:they provide a compact closed-form representation of distributions that are definable by programs, thus enabling the exact computation of posterior probabilities, expectation, variance, and higher moments.Our inference method is provably correct and fully automated in a tool called Genfer, which uses automatic differentiation (specifically, Taylor polynomials), but does not require computer algebra.Our experiments show that Genfer is often faster than the existing exact inference tools PSI, Dice, and Prodigy.On a range of real-world inference problems that none of these exact tools can solve, Genfer's performance is competitive with approximate Monte Carlo methods, while avoiding approximation errors.

Graphical models with latent count variables arise in a number of fields. Standard exact inference techniques such as variable elimination and belief propagation do not apply to these models because the latent variables have countably infinite support. As a result, approximations such as truncation or MCMC are employed. We present the first exact inference algorithms for a class of models with latent count variables by developing a novel representation of countably infinite factors as probability generating functions, and then performing variable elimination with generating functions. Our approach is exact, runs in pseudo-polynomial time, and is much faster than existing approximate techniques. It leads to better parameter estimates for problems in population ecology by avoiding error introduced by approximate likelihood computations.

This paper makes two contributions. Firstly, it introduces mixed compositional kernels and mixed neural network Gaussian processes (NGGPs). Mixed compositional kernels are generated by composition of probability generating functions (PGFs). A mixed NNGP is a Gaussian process (GP) with a mixed compositional kernel, arising in the infinite-width limit of multilayer perceptrons (MLPs) that have a different activation function for each layer. Secondly, $\theta$ activation functions for neural networks and $\theta$ compositional kernels are introduced by building upon the theory of branching processes, and more specifically upon $\theta$ PGFs. While $\theta$ compositional kernels are recursive, they are expressed in closed form. It is shown that $\theta$ compositional kernels have non-degenerate asymptotic properties under certain conditions. Thus, GPs with $\theta$ compositional kernels do not require non-explicit recursive kernel evaluations and have controllable infinite-depth asymptotic properties. An open research question is whether GPs with $\theta$ compositional kernels are limits of infinitely-wide MLPs with $\theta$ activation functions.

Rewards and punishments in different forms are pervasive and present in a wide variety of decision-making scenarios. By observing the outcome of a sufficient number of repeated trials, one would gradually learn the value and usefulness of a particular policy or strategy. However, in a given environment, the outcomes resulting from different trials are subject to chance influence and variations. In learning about the usefulness of a given policy, significant costs are involved in systematically undertaking the sequential trials; therefore, in most learning episodes, one would wish to keep the cost within bounds by adopting learning stopping rules. In this paper, we examine the deployment of different stopping strategies in given learning environments which vary from highly stringent for mission critical operations to highly tolerant for non-mission critical operations, and emphasis is placed on the former with particular application to aviation safety. In policy evaluation, two sequential phases of learning are identified, and we describe the outcomes variations using a probabilistic model, with closedform expressions obtained for the key measures of performance. Decision rules that map the trial observations to policy choices are also formulated. In addition, simulation experiments are performed, which corroborate the validity of the theoretical results.

Graphical models with latent count variables arise in a number of fields. Standard exact inference techniques such as variable elimination and belief propagation do not apply to these models because the latent variables have countably infinite support. As a result, approximations such as truncation or MCMC are employed. We present the first exact inference algorithms for a class of models with latent count variables by developing a novel representation of countably infinite factors as probability generating functions, and then performing variable elimination with generating functions. Our approach is exact, runs in pseudo-polynomial time, and is much faster than existing approximate techniques. It leads to better parameter estimates for problems in population ecology by avoiding error introduced by approximate likelihood computations.